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Daily Market Dispatch — September 1, 2025 Crypto markets are stepping into September on softer ground. Sentiment has cooled, but structural progress continues to unfold. With volatility contained, attention now turns to this week’s macro catalysts, which will play a key role in shaping the near-term direction. Policy rails are improving, leaving crypto primed for upside once this week’s macro catalysts land. The total crypto market sits at $3.76 trillion, slightly softer on the day, while sentiment sits at 39/100 (“Fear”)—a setup that historically provides fuel for rallies when clarity arrives. With U.S. markets closed today for Labor Day, crypto leads global price discovery. Investors are watching Friday’s U.S. jobs data for confirmation that Fed easing is on track. Bitcoin Bitcoin briefly dipped to a two-month trough below $108,000 on Monday, pressured by renewed whale sell-offs and shifting ETF dynamics, before stabilizing near $109,300. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $127 million on Friday, following $179 million of inflows the day prior—pointing to healthy two-way activity rather than broad redemptions. Implied volatility remains subdued, with the BVIV near cycle lows, leaving scope for sharper directional moves once catalysts land. Technically, $105,000–106,000 remains a strong support, while $112,000–115,000 is the next resistance zone. Consolidation just below $110,000 shows BTC is holding ground despite weaker equities and record gold prices. Still, caution persists with traders eyeing the U.S. jobs report to cement expectations for a Fed rate cut later this month. Seasonal “Red September” patterns and broader macro headwinds keep sentiment restrained. Ethereum & Stablecoins ETH trades near $4,400 with spot ETH ETFs recording $165 million in outflows on Friday, following inflows the prior day. On-chain activity remains strong, with 1.6–1.9 million transactions/day in August near cycle highs, underscoring steady demand. Stablecoins remain a deep liquidity base, with a market cap of around $280 billion, led by USDT and USDC. Together, ETF flows and stablecoin depth reinforce ETH’s role as the market’s liquidity backbone. Macro & Markets U.S. markets are closed today for Labor Day, leaving Asia and Europe to drive flows in thin holiday trade. Chinese equities extended gains on stronger factory data, while global investors brace for Friday’s U.S. jobs report, expected to cement odds of a Fed rate cut at the September 16–17 meeting. Fed funds futures now price nearly a 90% chance of a 25 bps cut, underscoring the market’s focus on labor data after Powell flagged rising risks at Jackson Hole. Gold extended its rally, hitting a four-month high above $3,460/oz, while silver spiked to a 14-year high, supported by safe-haven demand and softer dollar momentum. The net read-through: firm rate-cut expectations, buoyant precious metals, and easing dollar momentum provide a supportive backdrop for crypto, though volumes remain light, and this week’s data will be decisive. Looking Ahead This week is catalyst-heavy despite today’s holiday lull. Wednesday brings the Fed’s Beige Book, Thursday delivers PMIs and jobless claims, while Friday’s NFP and US unemployment reports round up the decisive prints before September’s FOMC. Markets could remain rangebound until then, but the backdrop—low implied vol, regulatory progress, and deep ETF/stablecoin plumbing—could position crypto for asymmetric moves if the data reinforces the Fed’s easing trajectory. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice

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